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Forex Discussions And News

Discussion in 'Advertising Forum' started by Meeru, Feb 25, 2016.

  1. Meeru

    Meeru Active Member

    AUD/USD: After the US Fed interest rate decision. Technical analysis

    Review and dynamics
    Following the Fed decision to leave short-term interest rate in the USA at the level of 0.5%, the USD fell in the market and in the pair AUD/USD.

    With the opening of today's trading session the pair AUD/USD continued to rise, being above the key support levels of 0.7470 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart), 0.7445 (Fibonacci 23.6% to the wave of decline since July 2014) and 0.7415 (ЕМА144, ЕМА200 on the daily chart).

    The pair AUD/USD remains in ascending channel on the daily and weekly charts with the upper limit on the weekly chart near the levels of 0.8030 (ЕМА144 and the upper limit of the ascending channel on the weekly chart) and 0.8130 (Fibonacci 50.0%).

    Our opinion
    The difference in the monetary policies of the US Fed and the RBA and the decline in oil prices put pressure on the Australian dollar. The rise in the pair AUD/USD is unlikely to exceed the levels of 0.7670 (highs of July) and 0.7720 (highs of May and March), which are close to the upper limit of the ascending channel on the daily chart.

    If the price goes below support levels of 0.7445 and 0.7415, the pair may continue to decline to support level of 0.7350 (the lower line of the ascending channel on the daily chart) or further down below the level of 0.7140 (lows of May).

    Alternative scenario suggests that upward correction will continue in the channel on the weekly chart with the upper limit at the level of 0.8030 (ЕМА144 on the weekly chart) and the nearest targets of 0.7670, 0.7720 and 0.7820 (Fibonacci 38.2%).
    The indicators OsMA and Stochastic do not give clear signals. On the weekly chart they are reversing towards the short positions, while on the daily and 4-hour charts they suggest to open long positions.
    Although the pair AUD/USD goes up today, traders shall be careful when opening long positions in view of the coming up meeting of the RBA devoted to the monetary policy of the country (2 August).

    Support levels: 0.7500, 0.7470, 0.7445, 0.7415, 0.7350, 0.7290 and 0.7200.
    Resistance levels: 0.7615, 0.7670, 0.7720, 0.7800 and 0.7820.

    Trading tips
    Sell on the market. Stop-Loss: 0.7560. Take-Profit: 0.7510, 0.7470, 0.7445, 0.7415, 0.7400, 0.7350, 0.7300, 0.7260, 0.7200 and 0.7140.
    Buy Stop: 0.7565. Stop-Loss: 0.7520. Take-Profit: 0.7600, 0.7615, 0.7670, 0.7720 and 0.7820
  2. Meeru

    Meeru Active Member

    XAU/USD: Decisions of the US Fed and the Bank of Japan

    At today’s meeting the Bank of Japan decided to leave the volume of government bonds purchases at the previous level of 80 trillion yen and rates on deposits of the commercial banks at the level of -0.1%.

    7 out of 9 members of the board of the Bank of Japan voted for the purchase of the shares of the funds traded at the stock market (ETF) in the volume of 6 trillion yen per year.

    This decision of the Bank of Japan disappointed investors, who hoped for more decisive actions from the Bank, which caused sharp rise in the Yen against the USD. The pair USD/JPY has dropped by over 150 points after the announcement of the Bank’s decision. The Yen sharply went up in the currency market. Within one hour after the announcement of the bank’s decisions volatility in the pair USD/JPY amounted to 290 points.

    Fluctuation in the pair USD/JPY caused volatility in other pairs with the USD and the Yen. Spot - price of gold soared up to 1343.00 USD per troy ounce.

    Volatility in the pair XAU/USD exceeded $15. Despite the brief rise in the price of gold, the pair XAU/USD has moved to the negative territory during the European session.

    Investors think over the recent decision by the US fed and the following up comments.

    On Wednesday, the US Fed left interest rates unchanged, stating that the short-term risks to the economic growth have declined. The Fed upgraded assessment of the economic conditions in the country and also highlighted the improvements in the labor market.

    The US Central Bank mentioned the possibility of the interest rate increase in the next few months, although, there were no clear indications of the rate increase in September.

    It is likely that the rate will be raised by 0.25% in December.

    If the Fed does decide to raise rates, it will be unfavorable decision for gold. High interest rates put downward pressure on gold, which does not bring interest income, therefore, demand for gold decreases with the increase of the borrowing costs for its acquisition and storage.
  3. Meeru

    Meeru Active Member

    XAU/USD: the pair is under pressure but in the ascending channel

    Following sharp rise of the price of gold caused by the Fed's decision to leave interest rates unchanged, the pair XAU/USD has been declining for the second day. The price of gold has not grown even today’s sharp rise in the Yen caused by the decisions adopted by the Bank of Japan, although volatility at the time of publication of the Bank’s decisions exceeded $1 per ounce of gold.

    On the daily chart the price is trying to break down the lower limit of the ascending channel near the level of 1333.00.

    The pair XAU/USD remains in the ascending channel on the weekly chart, with the upper limit near the levels of 1385.00 (highs of 2014) and 1410.00 (Fibonacci 50% to the wave of decline since October 2012).

    Our opinion
    On the weekly and 4-hour charts the indicators OsMA and Stochastic give sell signals.

    Today is the last trading day of the month and the price is near the level of 1324.00 (opening price in July and Fibonacci 38.2% to the wave of decline since October 2012).

    Breakdown of the levels 1333.00, 1324.00 and 1315.00 (lows of July) may trigger further decline in price with targets of 1264.00 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart) and 1240.00 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).

    Breakdown of the level of 1218.00 (Fibonacci 23.6%) can cause the reversal of the pair XAU/USD into the downward trend, which began in October 2012.

    In case of the alternative scenario, the price can go up above the 1340.00 level and continue to rise in the ascending channels on daily and weekly charts with the long-term targets of 1385.00 (upper line of the ascending channel on the weekly chart), 1410.00 (Fibonacci 50.0%), 1435.00 (highs of 2013) and 1500.00.

    Support levels: 1324.00, 1315.00, 1300.00, 1264.00, 1240.00 and 1218.00.
    Resistance levels: 1340.00, 1370.00, 1385.00, 1400.00, 1410.00, 1435.00 and 1500.00.

    Trading tips
    Buy Stop: 1346.00. Stop-Loss: 1322.00. Targets: 1360.00, 1385.00, 1400.00, 1410.00, 1435.00 and 1500.00.
    Sell on the market. Stop-Loss: 1360.00. Targets: 1315.00, 1300.00, 1264.00, 1240.00 and 1218.00.

  4. Meeru

    Meeru Active Member

    DJIA: The rise in the American stock indices has suspended. Fundamental analysis

    The rise in the American stock indices has suspended after reaching new record highs earlier in July.

    Pressure on U.S. stock indexes are caused by the following factors:

    decline in oil prices (in July the price of oil fell by 15%);
    reduced but still continuing concerns about the state of the global economy after Brexit (the Bank of England has warned that Brexit would have a negative impact on the British economy in the coming months);
    today's decision by the Bank of Japan (the Bank left the volume of government bonds purchase at the previous level of 80 trillion yen and kept the rates on deposits of the commercial banks at the level of -0.1%), which disappointed investors;
    comments made by the US Fed that short-term risks for economic growth have decreased, which opens up possibility of the interest rates increase in the USA in the next coming months.
    At the end of trades on Thursday, the DJIA (Dow Jones) fell by 0.1%, to 18457.00 points, S&P500 rose by 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite grew by 0.3%. The DJIA has been declining for a fifth consecutive session.

    However, the decrease in the indices is just the correction after the rapid growth in July. The decline can be also associated with the profit-taking in the long positions at the end of the month (today is the last trading day of the month).

    Positive US macro-economic data and the Fed’s reserved position on the interest rates increase have caused recent rise in the American stock indices.

    Low interest rates and investor confidence that the U.S. economy, which remains stable amid the global instability, help to maintain high levels of the US stock indices, which have reached new record highs.
  5. Meeru

    Meeru Active Member

    Analytical review of the stocks of Alphabet Inc

    Alphabet Inc., #GOOG [NASD]
    Technologies, Internet information providers, USA

    Financial performance of the company:
    Index – S&P 500; Beta – 0.89
    Capitalization – 550.00 В; Return on asset – 11.81%
    Income – 66.01 В; Average volume – 2.13 М.
    P/E – 32.25 ATR – 23.89.

    Analytical review:

    The company ranks the second on capitalization among the issuers traded in the American market;
    This month company’s stocks have grown by 10%. Yesterday, the company issued report for Q2 of the fiscal year 2016, which may trigger further rise in stocks;
    According to press-release company’s revenue has grown by 21.4% up to 21.5 billion USD. Net profit of the company rose by 24%, up to 4.88 billion USD. EPS (earnings per share) amounted to 8.42 USD against the forecast of 8.04 USD;
    At the press-conference company’s management said that the progress was achieved due to positive results in the advertising division. Revenue in this division rose by 19.5% and amounted to 19.14 billion USD;
    P/E Ratio also indicates possibility of the company’s growth. Alphabet P/E Ratio (32.25) is below the average P/E in industry (36.21).

    Last report showed that company’s management is in the right track. Revenue and net profit of the company rose above market expectations. The company has strong growth potential. Multipliers show the possibility of the company’s capitalization growth.
    It is likely that in the near future company’s quotes will go up.
    Trading tips for CFD of Alphabet Inc.

    Key levels:
    Support levels: 760.35 USD and 751.00 USD.
    Resistance level: 776.00 USD.

    Medium-term trading, Н1
    Currently, the issuer has broken down and consolidated above the local resistance level of 760.35 USD. If the price maintains the mirrored support level of 760.35 USD and in case of the respective confirmation (such as pattern Price Action), we recommend to open long positions. Risk per trade is not more than 2% of the capital. Stop order can be placed slightly below the signal line. Take profit can be placed in parts at the levels of 770.00 USD, 779.00 USD and 785.00 USD with the use of trailing stop.
  6. Meeru

    Meeru Active Member

    EUR/USD: Wave analysis and forecast for 29.07 – 05.08:

    Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.0960.

    Our opinion:Buy the pair from correction above the level of 1.0960 with the target of 1.1163 – 1.14.

    Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation of the price below the level of 1.0960 may trigger the decline in the pair to 1.08.

    Analysis:presumably, the formation of the downward correction of the senior level continues, as the wave 2. It is assumed that within this wave the first wave a of 2, which took a shape of a wedge, has just completed. It seems that currently upward correction as the wave b of 2, is being formed. If this assumption is correct, the pair may continue to rise up to 1.1160 – 1.14. Critical level for this scenario is 1.0960.

  7. Meeru

    Meeru Active Member

    USD/CAD: Wave analysis and forecast

    Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.3243.

    Our opinion:Sell the pair from correction below the level of 1.3243 with the target of 1.2858.

    Alternative scenario:Breakdown and consolidation of the price above the level of 1.3243 will trigger further rise in the pair up to 1.33 – 1.34, or higher.

    Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the upward correction has completed in the wave B of the senior level, which has a shape double three wxy. Locally, it seems that one-two impetus of the junior level has formed. If this assumption is correct, the pair may go down to the level of 1.2858. Critical level for this scenario is 1.3243.

  8. Meeru

    Meeru Active Member

    NZD/USD: New Zealand dollar is going up today.

    Today’s positive fundamental data triggered the rise in the NZD.

    Balance of foreign trade of New Zealand, which became known earlier today, was at the level of 127 million NZD in June. Note that foreign trade balance of the country has been positive for the sixth consecutive month.

    Positive effect on the rise in the pair NZD/USD was also caused by the rise in the Japanese Yen. According to Japanese media, Japanese Minister of Finance, Mr. Taro Aso said that incentive measures program were under consideration, which lowered expectations of introduction of such measures in the near future.

    Japan is one of the largest trading partners of New Zealand. The decline in the USD against the Yen has affected the pair NZD/USD.

    However, positive data on the New Zealand’s trade balance cannot stop the RBNZ from lowering interest rate. Last week the Bank announced its plans to lower interest rates in August.

    Market participants believe that the RBNZ will lower interest rates in August or November and current interest rate at the level of 2. 25% may be reduced to 1.7% by the end of the year.

    Traders will gradually switch their attention to a two-day meeting of the US Fed, which will start today. Tomorrow at 20:00 (GMT+2) Fed’s interest rate decision will be announced. It is likely that the rate will be left unchanged. US positive macro-economic statistics and mitigation of concerns about negative affect from Brexit make investors think that the Fed may raise interest rate this year.

    Futures for the interest rates of the US Fed show 20% probability of the increase in rates in September against 12% this month. Probability of the rate hike in December is 51%.

    Expectations of the decrease in the interest rate in New Zealand and a chance of the monetary policy tightening in the USA will be the main impetus in the pair NZD/USD until the end of the year.
  9. Meeru

    Meeru Active Member

    EUR/USD: the pair is at the level of 1.1000. Technical analysis

    Review and dynamics
    In anticipation of the important decisions, activity in the financial markets has been decreasing since the beginning of European session. The pair EUR/USD went back up to the level of 1.1000 and is now at the lower limit of the ascending channel on the weekly chart, which is close to the level of 1.0970.

    Our opinion
    On the weekly chart the indicators OsMA and Stochastic suggest to open short positions, while the indicators on the monthly chart are giving signals to sell. The indicators on 4-hour and daily charts show probability of the upward correction. However, considering important news, which is expected today, technical analysis can have only a secondary influence.

    Break down of the lower limit of the channel at the level of 1.0970 on the weekly chart can trigger further decline in the pair. In this case the nearest targets will be at the levels of 1.0915, 1.0865, 1.0800 and 1.0750.

    On the weekly chart the lower limit of the ascending channel is crossing the level of 1.0970, while the upper limit of the channel is close to the level of 1.1785 (Fibonacci 38.2% to the last wave of decline from the highs of 2014, ЕМА144 on the weekly chart). Breakdown of the lower limit of the channel and the level of 1.0970 (lows of July) may trigger further decline in the pair EUR/USD. In this case, the nearest targets will be at the levels of 1.0915, 1.0865, 1.0800 and 1.0750.

    Otherwise, the pair EUR/USD can go up to the levels of 1.1130 and 1.1175 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).

    Judging by the fundamental factors the pair is likely to decline.

    Support levels: 1.0970, 1.0915, 1.0865, 1.0800 and 1.0750.
    Resistance levels: 1.1025, 1.1100, 1.1130, 1.1175, 1.1200, 1.1285, 1.1300, 1.1400, 1.1430, 1.1485 and 1.1535.

    Trading tips
    Sell on the market. Stop-Loss: 1.1035. Targets: 1.0915, 1.0865, 1.0800 and 1.0750.
    Buy Stop: 1.1040. Stop-Loss: 1.0980. Targets: 1.1100, 1.1130 and 1.1175.

  10. Meeru

    Meeru Active Member

    Excess in oil supply, continues for the second year, over pacing a record seasonal demand for oil. Excess oil reserves exceeded even the record-breaking seasonal demand.
    At the end of trading session on Thursday, futures for crude oil Brent fell by 0.6%, to from 46.91 per barrel, futures for diesel fuel fell in price by 0.7% to 1.3959 USD per gallon.
    Due to the decline in demand for petroleum products at the end of the holiday season, the price of oil can continue to fall. Analysts expect the decrease in demand for oil from refineries in the next few months.

    Oil prices continue to fall even after the information from the U.S. Department of Energy on Wednesday about the decline in stocks of oil in warehouses of the country by 2.342 million barrels in the week of 9-15 July. Although commercial oil reserves in the USA have been reducing for the 9-th week in a row, excess of the current reserves compared to the average level for same period in last 5 years amounts to 34.7%. Therefore, although oil stocks have reduced, they remain excessive.

    Investors ' concerns about the slowdown of the economy in Eurozone and decline in oil consumption in this region are growing. Oil consumption fell by 15% of the total global supply.

    Continuing rise in the USD and uncertainty in the global economy caused by Brexit, also contribute to the decline in commodity prices, including oil.

    Today at 19:00 (GMT+2) oilfield services company Baker Hughes will issue report on the number of operating drilling platforms in the USA, which is an important indicator of activity in the oil sector of the US economy, having significant impact on the oil prices. Note that the number of the operating drilling rigs in the USA there has been steady increasing in the past 6 weeks. To date, there are 357 of them. If the number of the active drilling platforms in the USA continues to grow, oil prices will go down.
  11. Meeru

    Meeru Active Member

    LiteForex cancels minimum deposits in ECN accounts

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  12. Meeru

    Meeru Active Member

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  13. Meeru

    Meeru Active Member

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  14. Meeru

    Meeru Active Member

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